How to resist China's iron ore global market downturn

Today's global market remains in the doldrums, iron ore, coke, coking coal, the charge faced with how fate, the Chinese how to save? Wait and see.

Iron ore
A few days ago, the Chinese iron and steel enterprise information, BHP Billiton agreed to Japan's largest steelmaker - Nippon Steel Tues supply the fourth quarter of 2012 (October-December) offshore of hard coking coal, the price of 170 U.S. dollars / ton, the price than iron ore prices for the third quarter of 2012 was $ 225 / ton, down 55 U.S. dollars / ton, ring than the 25% decline. Iron ore prices is vulnerable, but the coking coal price decreases considerably large margin, more than we expected.

Coke
Billet prices rebound ineffective the Hebei region coke market weakness remains. NDRC: September 5 approved 25 rail transit projects, and 20 other traffic warehousing project, an energy pipeline project and the three companies to borrow offshore commercial loan project, September 6th relevant ministries and approved 11 infrastructure The project, involving an investment amount of more than 7000 billion; resulting in the billet continuous rise in the short term, ferocious rally. Skeptical but most of the steel mills of the late, have strong supporting factor prices, merchants wait-and-see mentality heavier; coupled with destabilizing effects of blank price the discontinued steel mills in the short term is difficult to resume production.

Early September for Large Iron and Steel Group, the the coke market high-end price, I feel pressure. Various steel mills were low inventory run some steel mills, coke stocks coke market downturn persists, the steel mills to negotiate the price will drop $ 100, the file yet announced the expected level the coke tax to the factory price 1480 yuan will be executed / ton. At the same time, the purchase price of coke Shougang Group in September this price, this is the last few years the only time the two steel mills coke purchase price "encounter".

Coking coal
Domestic coking coal prices continued to fall, the steel procurement stocks are running low. Across the country steel mills have said that many steel enterprises are at a loss, in addition to cuts, limiting the production of variable-like strategy, the upstream raw coke, coking coal and iron ore prices and costs is the main influence factors. Reduce inventory in the market remains in the doldrums the market fell, on the one hand be able to reduce the appropriation of funds, on the other hand, anti-guilty of coking coal downlink lead the hidden losses.

Domestic coking coal faces downside risks, by "Eighteen" and Dongchu seasonal impact, coking coal supporting factor synchronization is established; especially large ore coking coal prices plummeted in July to September, close to this part of the mine gas clean coal, steam coal has to stabilize rebound, play a stimulating role in the coking coal market.

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The establishment of the shortage of strategic mineral resources Collaborative Innovation Center

The shortage of strategic mineral resources Collaborative Innovation Center was established in Wuhan.

The Collaborative Innovation Center is led by the China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) construction, and joint entity Nanjing University, Peking University, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Central Geological Prospecting Fund Management Center units build R & D institutions.

It is learned that the center will be to get rid of Geology and Mineral Resources of collaborative innovation and institutional obstacles and resolve key constraints geological prospecting breakthrough science and technology issues for the target, combined with the shortage of strategic mineral resources at home and abroad of the status quo and development trends, put forward China's domestic mineral resources to find ore prospects, evaluation system and development mode. Meanwhile, the center will focus on the implementation of the personnel evaluation, the flow of talent, personnel training, collaborative innovation, resource factor mobility five mechanisms restructuring program.

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The steel enterprises comprehensive loss plan breakout trillion infrastructure projects to prop up the market

The steel businesses thorough loss plan breakout trillion infrastructure initiatives to help the marketplace

How huge the household steel businesses high ability to deal with the problems through the financial recession weak demand, in to the 'winter', to ascertain who're able to preserve it in the direction of the end. "Which grew to be the person liable for the China Iron and Metal Expertise Conference held these days in Beijing, household steel costs one of the most popular sensation.

Metal businesses liable individual even mentioned, "winter" through the steel market furthermore will need at least 3-five a long time, which involves iron and steel businesses ought to request new of growth and progress from the iron and steel sector by technologies, request new growth factors in conjunction with a fresh gain design.

The worst period ever

"Now's the worst length of background, anything is actually a whole lot a lot more extreme in comparison to 2008. Industry gross margin this earlier 12 months, under .4%, the most cost effective in more than twenty industries to carry out small business experience, industry-wide inside of the initial one / 2 of the time loss. Maanshan Iron and Metal Expertise Innovation Manager Zhang mentioned.

Valin Xiangtan Iron and Metal, deputy main engineer Liu Yonglong, steel trade company "reservoir" function in lessening unwilling to receiving products, iron and steel businesses will not desire to decelerate, will not desire to chop output, market sales will not get, nevertheless the steel inventory is developing. The steel sector has arrived in a seriously crucial phase.

The existing NDRC intensive authorised a number of rail transit development planning and freeway development initiatives. This sector associates believe that is propping in the market ". In link using this type of, Zhang, steel costs for the small term you will notice compact , downs. Zhang is pessimistic regarding the lengthy-term results, "this round of winter months will definitely go on for the sizeable pretty very long time".

Change the gain design

Wang Qinghai, China Iron and Metal Industry Association, mentioned: "repeat serious overcapacity, developing pressure on property and natural environment protection have increased to generally be progressively well known deep-sitting contradictions struggling with the harsh circumstance, output and procedure of people needs, we ought to request new of growth and progress from the iron and steel sector by technologies On the other hand, aided by the quantity of household technologies progressively thinning the place with globally layout steel sector smartly sizeable technologies happen to be challenging to deal with the progress of absorption, request new growth factors in conjunction with a fresh gain design, only by impartial innovation. "

Determined by Liu Yonglong to improve the cost of efforts to control the price reduction and performance, in the mining of recycleables, items, and prices begin modifying the dwelling to generally be able to improve the technologies as a way of technical innovation, in conjunction with the activation of institutional solutions to bolster company conduite, 4 methods, as short-term steps to take care of the "winter".

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The steel enterprises comprehensive loss plan breakout trillion infrastructure projects to prop up the market

The steel businesses extensive decline program breakout trillion infrastructure undertakings to guidance the market

How big the household steel businesses high power to deal with the troubles within the economic recession weak demand, in on the 'winter', to ascertain who're equipped to sustain it in the direction of the complete. "Which grew to become the individual liable to the China Iron and Steel Technology Meeting held currently in Beijing, household steel fees quite possibly the most common experiencing.

Steel businesses liable man or woman even mentioned, "winter" within the steel current market likewise need a minimum of 3-five several years, which calls for iron and steel businesses should search for new of progress and progress on the iron and steel marketplace through expertise, search for new progress details as well as the latest gain model.

The worst period of time ever

"Now's the worst length of background, every thing is really a lot extra significant compared to 2008. Field gross margin this previous 12 months, underneath .4%, the most affordable in additional than twenty industries to carry out business knowledge, industry-wide inside the 1st 1 / 2 of the time decline. Maanshan Iron and Steel Technology Innovation Manager Zhang mentioned.

Valin Xiangtan Iron and Steel, deputy main engineer Liu Yonglong, steel trade business "reservoir" position in lessening unwilling to acquiring products, iron and steel businesses do not desire to decelerate, do not desire to chop manufacturing, current market income do not get, even so the steel stock is developing. The steel marketplace has arrived in a genuinely essential stage.

The existing NDRC intense approved quite a few rail transit building organizing and highway building undertakings. This marketplace associates believe that is propping within the current market ". In link using this type of, Zhang, steel fees to the limited time period you will note smaller , downs. Zhang is pessimistic concerning the lengthy-term outcomes, "this spherical of winter season will certainly go on for a significant quite very long time".

Change the gain model

Wang Qinghai, China Iron and Steel Field Affiliation, mentioned: "repeat critical overcapacity, developing stress on belongings and setting safety have developed to get progressively notable deep-sitting contradictions experiencing the severe scenario, manufacturing and procedure of all those needs, we really should search for new of progress and progress on the iron and steel marketplace through expertise Having said that, along with the number of household expertise progressively thinning the area with throughout the world structure steel marketplace smartly significant systems are tough to cope with the progress of absorption, search for new progress details as well as the latest gain model, only through unbiased innovation. "

According to Liu Yonglong to boost the cost of initiatives to handle the cost reduction and performance, within the mining of recycleables, goods, and fees commence modifying the dwelling to get equipped to improve the expertise as a means of specialized innovation, as well as the activation of institutional programs to bolster business management, several techniques, as short-term measures to take care of the "winter".

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Province to carry out mining complex Green action to promote environmental protection in mining

On September 13, the reporter learned from the Office of Land and Resources, the province this week to start a mine complex green action, and the provincial cities to pay close attention to the development of mine regreen action embodiment.

According to reports, in order to further promote the mine geological environment protection work, increase Governance recovery efforts, highlighting the treatment effect, the Ministry of Land and Resources has decided to launch a nationwide mining complex green action. September 10, the province's "Mine complex green" operations are deployed will be held in Zhengzhou, the arrangements for the work of the province mine regreen action execution scheme.

Mine complex green, through engineering, biological and other measures, the comprehensive management of the mine geological environment problems caused by mining activities, and to achieve stability of the geological environment, ecology restored, landscape beautification process. The implementation of the mine complex green area, including the important nature reserves, scenic area, central living area surrounding residents and an important transportation routes, rivers and lakes intuitive visual range (referred to as "two lines").

According to the plan, the mine geological environment protection and management to establish "You broke it, who govern, those who invest long-term mechanism of benefit", 2015, "two lines of the three districts surrounding within prominent mine geological environment basic problem remediation, initial improvement of ecological environment in mining.

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Jiangxi get 45 rare earth mining warrants

Learned from Jiangxi Province, relevant departments, the province of 45 rare earth mining warrants, accounting for over 60% of the entire mining warrants. Ganzhou Rare Earth Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Ganzhou Rare Earth"), one in the hands of the mining warrants from 88 down to 44.

Ganzhou Rare Earth Mining Warrants halved
For the news released by the provincial relevant departments, the reporter has been confirmed on the official website of Land and Resources to publish files No. 21 of 2012. Through careful inspection and control data of previous years, the reporter found that, after the number of domestic rare earth exploration licenses for 10, consistent with the number of the announcement. Mining warrants decrease than the original number of 67, only 46 less than before. Ganzhou rare earth kingdom, "said the leader of the city - Ganzhou Rare Earth" in the hands of a number of mining warrants also dropped, from 88 down to 44.

On the 14th, Ganzhou Rare Earth sector insiders said, national remediation work has been done on rare earth mining links. The specification of the rare earth mining warrants for Southern ionic rare earth mineral district.

It is reported that the northern rare earth mining rights is mainly concentrated in Baotou in the hands of the mining rights in the South is widely distributed in the largest province in various rare earth. Prior to a total of 89 mining permits in Jiangxi, Ganzhou Rare Earth "a 88 mining warrants held a total of six in Fujian, Guangdong Province, all four mining warrants by Rising colored holds.

To reduce mining warrants favor industry consolidation
Since last year, the in high profits stimulus, the rare earth enterprise into a Luancailuanwa unplanned planned production vicious cycle of state. In order to change the situation fundamentally, in July of this year, led by the Department of Homeland multisectoral develop rare earth mineral mining rights of access conditions provisions will also be established manufacturers: In addition to the strict limit to the amount and scale of mining resources, the main business income The high threshold must be more than 10 billion.

"Rare earth mining rights substantially reduce, aimed at changing the rare earth mines 'and more, small, scattered, chaos' of the situation, aspects of mining exploitation began gradually to large enterprises tilt conducive to rare earth industry to continue to integrate." Ganzhou a rare earth enterprises who said.

Learned that the pattern of the rare earth industry as the leading rare earth companies taking shape. Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Fujian and other basic completion of the merger and reorganization of rare earth resources in the regional integration and smelting enterprises, the formation of the Group of rare earth enterprises at the provincial level. As rare earth province of Jiangxi is also accelerating merger and reorganization efforts.

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China Gold Ankang gold mine bankruptcy

China National Gold Corporation Ankang gold mine (hereinafter referred to as the well-being of gold) policy bankruptcy into the finishing stage.

September 11, the well-being of gold bankruptcy liquidation group through western Equity Exchange, held by the well-being of gold mining houses, structures and land, as well as the gold mine gas station land and its subsidiaries assets publicly announced the transfer.

Transfer notice, Ankang the Gold Mine bankruptcy liquidation group listing price of 4.75 million transfer of Ankang gold mine buildings, structures and land projects, land transfer price of 950,000 gas stations extremely subsidiaries Assets, a total of 5.7 million.

Public information, the the Ankang Gold Mine Department of the former Ministry of Metallurgical Industry approved the investment to set up state-owned enterprises established by China National Gold Corporation, was established in September 1987 with a registered capital of 20 million yuan. Place of business is mainly concentrated in Ankang City, Shaanxi Hang Town. Mainly engaged in the business of labor exports, gold and byproduct detection.

Since then, the well-being of the gold mine existing resources due to the gradual depletion. Mine now take the associate, investment in the form of a variety of operations, investment management enterprises gradually shift by a business enterprise. Its investment enterprises mainly the major gold mine in Shaanxi province, including the the Lueyang Ganges Gold, Prudence field ditch gold mine, the Zhouzhi County Ma'anqiao gold mine, Zhen'an gold mine.

However, due to the well-being of gold mining revenue year after year low, and policy bankruptcy in December 2009.

In this regard, Ankang City Intermediate People's Court civil ruling (2009) An Min breaking No. 1-1 ruling China Gold Corporation Ankang gold bankruptcy filing. Subsequently, the China Gold Corporation Ankang gold mine the bankruptcy liquidation Ann gold break Zi (2012) No. 01 to make the resolution agreed to dispose of the well-being of gold bankruptcy and liquidation of assets

In 2010, China National Gold Group (formerly China National Gold Corporation) for the well-being of gold mine, the implementation of policy bankruptcy fight for 28.55 million yuan of central government subsidies, pay for the well-being gold mine job placement, work for disabled persons grants from the retired people, early retirement staff handover and continuation of social insurance, corporate social functions Transition workers owed wages and other expenses.

"Ankang Gold Mine is central in security enterprise, worked the local gold resource development, local economic development has played a role, to make contributions to the implementation of the policy bankruptcy implement national industrial adjustment policies, a better solution to the enterprise's resources are exhausted stable and a special policy to speed up the adjustment of the economic structure of the special period. "Ankang City, the SASAC Director Yang Yupeng second meeting was held in the well-being of gold bankruptcy liquidation group said.

According to the reporter, the well-being of gold bankruptcy liquidation work has been completed, are doing the final disposal of assets.

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2012 global iron ore supply in the second half of the year is still on the rise

China's Baoshan Iron & Steel in charge of a senior, said on Thursday that the global demand for iron ore will not grow in the second half of 2012 and may even decline compared with the first half, while the supply is still rising.

Baosteel is China's largest listed steel enterprises, the person in charge of procurement operations Chang Tien wave in a industry meeting, said the global seaborne iron ore supply in the second half of this year compared with the first half, an increase of more than 50 million tons.

Further decline in demand, coupled with new mine supply iron ore price has dropped to three-year lows, may fall further in the coming months, the threat to the Rio Tinto and CVRD, Brazil and other large mining enterprises profitable.

"With industrialization, urbanization and infrastructure investment pace of slowdown in Chinese steel demand growth rate has decreased steadily," said Chang Tien wave.

2011-2015 the average annual growth rate of China's steel demand is estimated at 4.2%, but if we can achieve this increase is "Chang Tien wave that.

China's crude steel production in January-July year-on-year increased by only 2.1%, to 419.5 million tons in the same period last year representing an increase of 10.3%.

Chang Tien Bo said, China's steel production will reach 700 million tons in the next 15 years the limit, and then began to decline.

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Iron ore prices CITIC Pacific earnings and valuation worries

The steel industry under a Aihong, the windfall once considered iron ore price is no longer crazy. Once remarkable CITIC Pacific magnetite project in Western Australia, the repeated postponement of their increased costs. September 6th, Goldman Sachs believes that iron ore prices continued to fall increase its put into difficulty, do not rule out the CITIC Pacific refused to put into production because of cost issues, when 250 billion asset impairment for fear of the iron ore business.

Western Australian iron ore project is wholly-owned by CITIC Pacific held in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, has about 20 million tonnes of magnetite resources. Completed, it will have six production lines, with an annual output of 24 million tons of magnetite concentrate and iron ore will CITIC Pacific Special Steel as well as the rest of the continent steel enterprises.

August 29, CITIC Pacific said in the semi-annual report, will not be able to promise the end of August, the first production line operational goals, try the hours of operation postponed from August to November.

MCC is responsible for part of the main beneficiation process is put into the main reason for lagging, "said CITIC Pacific chairman Chang Zhenming, MCC is an experienced contractor, but the face of such a large and complex projects in Australia, the difficulty and workload are much higher than expected. CITIC Pacific said the target primary task in the second half and the focus continues to be making the Sino Iron project into production as quickly as possible. The difficulty of exploitation, CITIC Pacific said iron ore project that has been postponed, but also makes the capital expenditure is also increasing, the Daily News revealed that the first half of the iron ore mining capital expenditure of 9.058 billion yuan, an increase of 50% from the beginning of the period.

"CITIC Pacific magnetite project in Western Australia, the advantages of transport closer, only 100 km from the port, but the disadvantage is that its products magnetite structure is too dense, lower tastes restore them more demanding, so for steel The plant prefers hematite. "one researcher told reporters familiar with the Australian iron ore. "Originally, the Australian iron ore facing overcapacity, magnetite is relatively new breed, the market will have no idea on how to? For Chinese manufacturers, they are willing to CITIC Pacific magnetite? Unless the price is relatively cheap." The researcher told reporters.

In fact, CITIC Pacific magnetite is not cheap, analysts introduced to reporters Tinto, BHP Billiton and force the cost per ton of iron ore to the Chinese port only 37-38 U.S. dollars, mining costs per ton of about $ 30 . CITIC Pacific Mining costs at around $ 120 per ton, to the port price should be higher than $ 120 per ton. The above Australia iron ore researcher, told reporters that CITIC Pacific magnetite projects, mining and marketing costs are higher than normal hematite, with the exception of transport dominant overall profit margins are relatively small. "Unless the price of iron ore rose to 150 U.S. dollars / ton, otherwise those iron ore mining project impossible value."

According to the monitoring of statistics, as of September 7, Rizhao Port 58 Indian powder for 82 U.S. dollars / ton, down $ 6 late last week; 62 Indian meal for 101 U.S. dollars / ton, late last week, down $ 8 / t; 62 Australia $ 115 / ton block late last week fell $ 3 / t.

Grade 58 Indian powder $ 82 / t, and certainly to fall below $ 80, the futures price has tumbled nearly $ 10 higher than the spot. "An analyst said. CITIC Pacific said that in the semi-annual report Risk Warning iron ore market price depends primarily on the amount of international supply and demand, if there is excess supply, also the negative impact. Iron ore bottom line, the key is to look at the user Chinese steel mills, but to see orders and profit margins of Chinese steel mills, China Steel City in a recession, can not find any signs of recovery. "How to predict short, China is a decline in channel Steel City, not to the ore brought elements of support for any rebound or pull up. "the analyst said.

September 6th, Goldman Sachs said in a report, iron ore prices from the beginning of the year of $ 138 per ton fell to $ 87, iron ore prices will become of CITIC Pacific earnings and valuation worries.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the iron ore unit cash costs for the next two years, and the total cost will be 78-79 U.S. dollars per tonne and 115-127 U.S. dollars, iron ore prices further adjustments, and fell below the cash costs of the CITIC Pacific discontinued company or will the project, the project will not be able to generate returns. If this happens, Goldman Sachs, the carrying value of its iron ore business will be reduced by 25 billion yuan.

September 7, CITIC Pacific to close at HK $ 9.2, up 1.21%.

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The Commerce Department reported that the first batch of rare earth export quotas in 2012 a total of 10,546 tons

27, 2009, the Ministry of Commerce announced the first batch of rare earth export quotas in 2012, 7 by the producers of the environmental verification and four circulation enterprises, the first batch of a total quota of 10,546 tons.

The person in charge of the Foreign Trade Division of the Ministry of Commerce said that in order to minimize the impact of market supply, the first batch of 11 enterprises quota amount should have 80% of the amount of quota issued its full year. The same time, in order to effectively protect the environment, environmental verification part is still in the enterprise, the Commerce Department set aside and announced its first batch should have quota amount (its full year deserve the quota amount of 80%), but not yet issued quota, when it is issued by the the environmental verification after line.

As of November 2011, China's total exports of rare earth 14,750 tons, accounting for only 49% of the total annual export quota. The official said the total rare earth export quotas for 2012 remains flat in 2011, in order to safeguard the international market demand, to maintain the basic stability of rare earth supply.

The official also said that in order to further improve the policy and targeted, better protect resources and the environment, the Ministry of Commerce in rare earth export quotas since 2012 the light rare earths and heavy rare earth classification management approach.

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China Metallurgical strive Western Australia iron ore into production as soon as possible

China Metallurgical operation of the first half of 2012, in the context of severe external macroeconomic environment, affected. The semi-annual report shows that China Metallurgical first half operating income of 107 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.81%; gross profit margin of 12%, year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points; However, the provision for asset impairment, the increase in financial expenses as well as investment income fell impact attributable to the parent company net profit of -1.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 109.45%.

Yesterday, China Metallurgical held communication meeting, described the recent market is more concerned about the two overseas iron ore project and Huludao colored business.

SINO iron ore project of Western Australia

Construction delay
In August 2007, China Metallurgical Group Co., Ltd. and CITIC Pacific subsidiary companies - SINOIRONPTYLTD (the company of CITIC Pacific Limited, a subsidiary of Western Australia) signed Western Australia SINO Iron Ore Project agreement, the two sides agreed on the project in the second half of 2009 The contract amount of $ 3,407,000,000.

As of June 30, 2012, the Western Australia the SINO Iron ore project cumulative project cost more than the two sides have signed the contract amount ($ 3.407 billion), out of 3.025 billion yuan. , China Metallurgical and CITIC Pacific has SINO iron ore project in Western Australia to establish good communication and coordination mechanisms, MCC project cost problems will be resolved in a reasonable manner.

The project is the first production line engineering has completed 93.2 percent by the end of July, the second production line project completed in 82.1%, 90.6% of the twelve production lines to complete, but several groups of owners used to transport equipment and materials The shipment delay, the longest delay of 38 days in a single batch of objective factors. Meanwhile, the project site suffered three hurricanes and other force majeure affect the project's first production line can not be put into operation on August 31 as planned, the China Metallurgical and CITIC Pacific is to work together to strive to achieve production as soon as possible.

Cape Lambert Iron Ore Project

Impairment losses are recognized
Cape Lambert Iron Ore Project 100% interest in China MCC subsidiary MCC Australia Holdings Limited is located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The 2008 acquisition of the resources of 1.556 billion tons, after the Australian company as supplemented and then recalculate the amount of geological resources, increased to 1.915 billion tons. Major construction projects, including mining, mineral processing, tailings, water desalination plants, ports, power plants, and the camp.

Currently, the project is still in the preparatory stage, in accordance with regulatory requirements, the need to provision for impairment of assets of 1.81 billion yuan, but the provision for asset impairment stage to assess the work of the existing assets in accordance with relevant accounting standards and does not mean that the final results, and Cape Lambert project, there are other mines have not yet carried out exploration, prospecting potential still.

In addition, MCC MCC Huludao Nonferrous Metals Group under the non-ferrous metal smelting and chemical products in an integrated enterprise, whose main business is copper, lead, zinc smelting and deep processing products. Due to the multi-the Huludao colored historical issues, but also in the environment of non-ferrous smelting industry downturn in the first half of 2012, Huludao Nonferrous income was 2.41 billion yuan, a loss of 8.2 billion yuan, 10.75 billion yuan of assets and liabilities of 14.84 billion yuan, In order to deal with the situation of the loss, the company set up a Reform Leading Group, is in accordance with the relevant research solutions.

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September 3 Early Review: Lead prices weighed on the dollar to fall Lun lead to higher volatility

International market: Prior to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said the high unemployment rate and worthy of "serious concern", which investors expect the Fed will launch a bond purchase program, or quantitative easing; addition, the United States also announced in July strong factory orders boosted the market, weighing on the dollar to fall, higher volatility LME base metals; LME Lead $ 16.25 higher than the previous close of $ 1,964; LME lead stocks on Friday reduced by 1250 tons to 310,225 tons.

LME Lead opened today, $ 1,960 higher than the previous day down $ 4; released over the weekend, China's official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.2%, is nine months since the first time fell below the 50% line ups and downs, this implies that China's industrial manufacturing sector is still in contraction, increasing the risk of decline in prices of non-ferrous metals market, combined with the main sub-indexes of view, the economy in the downstream gradual signs of bottoming, and the debt is still brewing in the affected period The lead facing callbacks pressure Concerned about the days of HSBC China PMI data in August.

Morning aluminum price forecast: by August PMI data fell below the 50 line ups and downs as well as influenced by movements in the outer disk, the main January 1211 contract opened 15,105 yuan flat compared with the previous trading day, today's spot or little change.

Highlights: at home and abroad
January 31, 1,8 a global central bank governors meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speech to central bankers and economists at the annual economic forum, said the job market in the United States people deeply worried about the problem. He said, deliberative, non-traditional policy consideration can be controlled, which means that once the economic situation is really necessary, should not exclude the possibility of further quantitative easing.

2, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) said on Friday (August 31), the country in July factory orders hit the biggest increase in the past year, a new bright spot in the manufacturing sector, shows that the U.S. economic recovery is being rebuilt kinetic energy. Also released data show that the U.S. July factory orders monthly rate rose 2.8%, to 4,786.2 billion U.S. dollars, is expected to rise 1.9%. July factory orders recorded since July 2011, the largest increase of the prices of precious metals. U.S. June factory orders down 0.5% rate for the month, the data has not been amended.

3,8 manufacturing PMI opened the prelude to the August macroeconomic data, this data, however, is not optimistic about the manufacturing PMI was only 49.2% in August, not only below the line ups and downs, more innovation nearly nine months a new low. The same time, the steel industry in August PMI more sharply, down 4.6 percentage points, to hit the lowest level since December 2008. The data show that China's economy is still down range, the face of weak economic situation in Europe and the United States recovery in the second half of "steady growth" or will be more focus on "steady domestic demand, the government will launch more stimulus policies to stimulate economic recovery.

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September 3, the price of tin early assessment: the domestic PMI for the first time below "50" constraining Lun Tin prices

Review of Trends:
Last Friday earlier released by Eurostat, in July of the 17 member states of the euro zone, the number of unemployed increased by 88,000 to 1,800.2 million, the highest level since January 1995, data on the euro zone debt crisis on the real economic impact as well as economic recovery hopes slim inhibited Lun Tin trend, however, Bernanke speech to boost the popularity of the prices of non-ferrous metals prices market on a global central bank governors meeting, he said, the United States will be necessary further action to stimulate the economy to grow faster, the market expected the Fed may launch a new round of quantitative easing policy warming, support Lun tin recover some losses, closing at $ 19,500 a tonne, down $ 80, a decrease of approximately 0.41% .

Today's market and forecast:
China announced its August official manufacturing PMI data for the first four months of consecutive decline, and below the 50 dividing line for the first time since, triggering market fears of China's economic recovery momentum, this will to some extent on the bad metal trend, However, the global central bank governors meeting, Bernanke's remarks boosted the market sentiment, or to support the Lun tin price rebound.
Currently on the market downstream receiving goods less strong market sentiment, traders said shipping difficulties, thin trading, today's spot price is expected to continue to decline slightly.

Latest Market Focus:
1 Beijing time on August 31 evening news, Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole is not implied QE3, still said that the Fed has prepared the necessary monetary stimulus measures, but did not mention.
July of the 17 member states of the euro zone, the number of unemployed up by 88,000 people, to 1,800.2 million, creating the highest level since the data compiled for the first time in January 1995.
Announcement jointly issued by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, Aug. official purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2, a record nine-month low. This will be the official PMI fell below 50 for the first time since November last year, nationwide manufacturing activity into a shrinking.

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Iron ore supply and demand relationship gradually reversed the the pricing mechanism Advent change

Before July this year earn 1.68 yuan per ton of steel, the lower level of profitability of 50 yuan per ton of steel than the financial crisis, "Wang Qi, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, the recent remarks reveal the plight of the profitability of the steel industry .

Profits fall into a historical low, on the one hand will be the poor health of the steel mills eliminated, which of decompression in the overcapacity of the industry, the head of the mountain. On the other hand, with the gradual reversal of the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore pricing mechanism face and then the opportunities for change.

Ten loss company steel half steel prices in the short term is expected to continue dropping
As of August 31, Shanghai and Shenzhen more than 2,000 listed companies in the semi-annual report disclosure. In a single enterprise, the China Ocean topped 49 billion in losses. On industry, the iron and steel the real hardest hit. Angang Steel Company in the first half of a loss of 20 billion yuan, Magang loss of 1.9 billion yuan, and Shandong Iron and Steel loss of 10 billion. Former top 10 companies in which the losses in the iron and steel enterprises actually accounted for 5 seats.

As the best domestic iron and steel enterprises, Baosteel first half net profit of 9.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 89%. However, the first half of Baosteel sale of stainless steel, special steel division, and other related assets, non-recurring income of 9.09 billion yuan. Baosteel's profits in the first half, net of the factors in fact, more than a 50% decline.

Although the Government has started the "steady growth" policy from May, but could not stop the trend of decline in steel prices. According to the monitoring statistics show that, in the 31st, the domestic steel prices have fallen below 3,600 yuan / ton, compared to April, down more than $ 600, the trend to move closer to the financial crisis. The loss of the steel company to expand in August by week, He Wenbo, Baosteel chairman, admitted that the third quarter will be the most difficult period of the Iron and Steel Company during the year.

The face of sluggish demand, steel mills rely on agents order to maintain sales model is faced with severe challenges. Some private steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei Province have started to mobilize workers to make the sale. Industry researcher pointed out recently the steel market false warehouse receipts, Piandai, and other risk concentrated outbreak, market confidence in the bottom of the expected the steel prices short-term rebound basically hopeless, will continue down dip.

Steel trading business into enterprise or out turn of the steel mills in the foot '
Demand malaise and steel prices have fallen sharply from the second half of last year, some steel traders in the Yangtze River Delta "on foot" phenomenon. To judge from the current situation, this negative situation will the steel mills spread, some high debt, poor product sales, production enterprises will face death in the face.

Nanjing Iron & Steel United Co., Ltd. Chairman Yang Siming said that China's steel industry has entered a "long-term frozen period. "If you like such a delay, the next 3-5 years there will not be changes in the part of the enterprise must have fallen."

Jiang Jianping, deputy general manager of the country's largest private steel enterprises Shagang Group more bluntly: This winter, some enterprises more prepared cotton is also useless to leave or stay, should make early plans.

Companies were eliminated admittedly cruel, but it is one of the keys to recovery of China's steel industry and then meet. Wang Qi pointed out that China's crude steel production capacity of about 940 million tons, while last year's crude steel production of 680 million tons, however, capacity serious excess capacity. In the first seven months of this year, China's crude steel production of 419 million tons, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year. Excluding the increase in exports and inventory, actual consumption fell by 3.6%, which is over the years is rare.

Based on the fact that the absolute decline of the steel, Wang Qi that crude steel production reached 700 million tons, will enter the peak area. "Some private entrepreneurs are already considering future crude steel consumption dropped to 600 million tons or 400 million tons of how to do."

If the above-mentioned judgment, the number of iron and steel enterprises to be eliminated? The Jiangsu Zhongtian Iron and Steel Group Vice President Zhou Kwok-chuen given judgment, 20% of the steel enterprises face out of this round of winter.

Pricing mechanism and then welcome the opportunity for change steel mills to revert to the principle of large concessions
The steel enterprises into profitable trough or even bankruptcy, will inevitably reduce the consumption of raw materials. Iron ore prices have fallen below $ 100, down 50% compared with a record high. Coal prices have continued to fall in the space.

Baosteel raw material procurement, general manager Chang Tien-wave, while the decline in demand in the second half of global seaborne iron ore supply compared with the first half is expected to increase more than 50 million tons, into the relatively loose.

The face of the ever-decreasing price of iron ore, Chang Tien-wave, said the large steel mills perform quarterly index pricing like some kind of "kidnapping". On the one hand, the quarterly pricing reference index derived from the spot market, while the spot market sample areas for improvement. It is estimated that only 6% to 9% of the total sales amount of the three mines through spot tenders. That is less than 10% of the iron ore trading decisions most of the ore price agreement.

On the other hand, when the ore price falling, perform quarterly agreements steel mills lost the opportunity to participate in market transactions, can only passively accept the index price. "At present, the implementation of the agreement of any cycle mine in terms of price, there will not be advantage," said, according to industry surveys. More and more people realize that if this situation does not change, the steel mills are not as directly to the stock market go up procurement.

In the case of gradual reversal of the relationship between supply and demand of iron ore, Chang Tien-wave should be explored more reasonable pricing. He think mine need emphasis on with large concessions marketing principles to protect the interests of the protocol client. Wang Qi also said that the change of the pricing mechanism, associations and international mining has been maintained contact.

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